Rediscovering the Lost Art of China-Watching
With access to China tightening, researchers must adapt. A mix of traditional China-watching techniques—media analysis, elite tracking, and document examination—combined with modern tools like AI and open-source intelligence has become essential for producing robust China knowledge.
A recent report by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) China Research Center examines how researchers can adapt to Beijing's growing restrictions by reviving Cold War-era China-watching techniques.
Studying China in the Absence of Access: Rediscovering a Lost Art explores how techniques such as media analysis, elite tracking, and document examination—once central to understanding China during past periods of restricted access—have become essential again in today's research environment.
Drawing on insights from leading experts, including Joseph Fewsmith, Thomas Fingar, Alice Miller, and Frederick Teiwes, the report argues that while direct engagement with China has become more difficult, researchers can still generate meaningful insights by applying traditional methodologies alongside modern analytical tools.
The Cold War and the Evolution of China Watching
For much of the 20th century, China was largely inaccessible to foreign scholars due to geopolitics. During the Cold War, analysts developed indirect methods, drawing from Soviet studies, propaganda analysis, and political science frameworks.
The McCarthy-era purge of China specialists in the United States further hindered expertise, creating a gap that lasted until the late 1960s. By the 1970s, the field expanded with government and private sector support, developing systematic approaches to understanding Chinese elite politics and policy trends.
Research Methods Before 1978
Before China opened to foreign researchers, scholars relied on alternative techniques. Media analysis was central, with experts scrutinising state-run newspapers and official documents for shifts in rhetoric and omissions to infer leadership priorities.
Document analysis complemented this by examining internal party publications, biographies, and official statements to track factional dynamics and decision-making processes within the Communist Party.
Hong Kong became a critical research hub, providing access to defectors and restricted Chinese publications through institutions like the Universities Service Centre.
Researchers pieced together insights from memoirs, diplomatic interactions, and limited fieldwork in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Tracking the careers of Communist Party officials provided insights into political alignments and policy shifts.
The Opening of China
The normalisation of U.S.-China relations in 1979 marked a shift in China studies. Foreign researchers gained direct access to Chinese academics, officials, and archival materials.
Fieldwork, interviews, and survey data became increasingly available, reducing reliance on traditional China-watching techniques.
Scholars embraced social science methodologies, integrating quantitative and qualitative tools to study governance, economic policy, and social change, resulting in a more comprehensive understanding of China’s political and economic landscape.
The Xi Jinping Era: Renewed Restrictions
Under Xi Jinping, research access has tightened, limiting fieldwork, academic exchanges, and official data access. These restrictions complicate interviews, economic analysis, and political assessments.
Researchers now face challenges in verifying economic statistics and engaging with Chinese sources. The reliability of public data has also declined, further complicating China research.
In response, the report argues for a renewed focus on earlier methodologies, reinforced by modern analytical tools.
Reviving Classical China-Watching Techniques
In response to these constraints, researchers must refine classical techniques, applying media analysis, elite tracking, and personnel monitoring with renewed scrutiny.
Comparative political studies help contextualise China’s governance within broader authoritarian frameworks. Monitoring personnel changes remains essential for understanding power dynamics and factional alignments.
Leveraging New Technologies in China Studies
Advances in technology provide powerful new tools for China research. AI, big data, and open-source intelligence allow researchers to process vast amounts of information, tracking official rhetoric, infrastructure, trade, and military activity. Satellite imagery and digital forensics further help in identifying economic and security shifts.
However, these tools present risks. The report cautions against over-reliance on such methods, highlighting challenges such as misinformation, data manipulation, and interpretative pitfalls. Ensuring accuracy requires human expertise, careful data triangulation, and a methodological balance between digital tools and classical China-watching techniques.
Expanding Indirect Research Approaches
With direct access increasingly limited, researchers are also turning to indirect methods. Studying China’s influence on neighbouring countries—particularly in Southeast Asia and Central Asia—offers insights into its economic and political strategies.
Engaging with the Chinese diaspora, international business communities, and former officials provides alternative perspectives otherwise inaccessible within China. Trade flows, supply chains, and financial markets also serve as indicators of economic shifts, even in the absence of reliable official data.
Sustaining the Study of China
Today’s constraints demand a return to classical approaches, reinforced by modern analytical tools. A combination of interdisciplinary methods, alternative data sources, and comparative analysis will remain key to understanding China’s evolving trajectory.
Beyond methodology, I find deeper questions worth considering. Who shapes the dominant knowledge about China, and to what end? What interests and assumptions influence the narratives that take hold? How do restrictions on access not only define how China is studied but also determine what is prioritised—and what remains overlooked?