China Tweets #12
Taiwan
Sober and sense-making piece from John Culver who argues that a PRC invasion of Taiwan would have many early signals and they are currently not evident.
Pick up a newspaper these days and you may think Beijing is about to invade Taiwan sometime between next Tuesday and, say, 2024. But @JohnCulver689 has spent a lifetime watching the PLA and if war is Beijing's plan, he says, then these would be the signs: https://t.co/jUFyvossMM
— Evan Feigenbaum (@EvanFeigenbaum) October 3, 2022
Wishful thinking from the next @ASEAN SecGen: "We do not believe that China would invade Taiwan, because China considers Taiwan as part of China, Why would it invade Taiwan? I believe that the Chinese leaders are wise and …they wd not do that," https://t.co/eejYQQZucj
— Julian Ku 古舉倫 (@julianku) October 3, 2022
Indian MP visits Taiwan:
Welcome to Taiwan, @SujeetKOfficial!
— Sana Hashmi | 胡莎娜 (@sanahashmi1) October 3, 2022
The first Indian Member of Parliament to visit Taiwan in half-a-decade! https://t.co/TFsGg0hKvK
“The China Factor in Taiwan’s Midterms - Will China’s military threats impact Taiwan’s upcoming local elections?”
— Lev Nachman (@lnachman32) October 3, 2022
My latest election update with @brianhioe for @Diplomat_APAC: https://t.co/kjF09fnpPV
Four stylish Taiwanese cyclists from 1940. https://t.co/o6Wtjtdi29
— Michael Fahey (@shu_wang_gong) October 4, 2022
Signals from Beijing that tensions over Taiwan are cooling:
Beijing is silently seeking an off-ramp to soften down on Taiwan, as it knows its max pressure approach has failed to win hearts & minds.
— Wen-Ti Sung (@wentisung) October 7, 2022
Yesterday Taiwan affirmed Macau Govt'd renewed TW representatives' visas, even though they didn't sign the 'One China' pledge required by BJ pic.twitter.com/SkD2sP24PI
Elon Musk has decided to poke his sticky beak into the international affairs of Ukraine and now of Taiwan:
(Reuters) - Billionaire Elon Musk, days after floating a possible deal to end the war between Russia and Ukraine that drew condemnation in Ukraine, suggested that tensions between China and Taiwan could be resolved by handing over some control of Taiwan to Beijing.
— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) October 8, 2022
A thread on the one-China principle:
1/ With the 20th Party Congress just a week away, a surge of dis/misinformation re: Taiwan & "One China" is inbound.
— Adam P. Liff (@AdamPLiff) October 7, 2022
Don't fall for it!
A fact-based🧵inspired by my **newly published** article w/ @DaltonLin in @ChinaQuarterly
Now *FREE & OPEN-ACCESS*: https://t.co/4KtjrTeKYN
Interesting thread on a defunct building in Miaoli, Taiwan that signifies KMT corruption:
I was on a southbound train, and while passing Hsinchu-Miaoli area, I caught a glimpse of an odd, abandoned Ancient Greek-styled, temple-like building. Bored as I was, I looked it right up on google map and went down the investigatory rabbit hole.
— Timo H. (@timmyzone) October 9, 2022
Here’s a thread🧵: pic.twitter.com/V5POOsTugG
Security/Foreign Policy
On Xi's Global Security Initiative:
New piece in @ForeignAffairs this morning on Xi Jinping's Global Security Initiative, & why I think it's likely to be a significant shift (over time) in Chinese foreign policy: https://t.co/QkOAGpwGP3
— Sheena Chestnut Greitens (@SheenaGreitens) October 3, 2022
New book on China's food security:
CHINA AND GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
— China Books of The Year 📚 (@NewChinaBooks) October 8, 2022
An overview of how China's strategy for feeding 1.4 billion people is impacting the international agri-food order.
Free online access until October 20 😊
October 2022@CambridgeUPhttps://t.co/T0HFUC0Qb5 pic.twitter.com/sJp1F2piKv
A Belt and Road investment in Indonesia:
INDONESIA HIGH-SPEED RAIL | MADE IN CHINA
— Nikkei Asia (@NikkeiAsia) October 3, 2022
Indonesia presents the Chinese-made cars of the country's first high-speed train line to the public. But they remain veiled. https://t.co/opXWrz3MZa
Domestic cultivation of genetically modified maize and soybean crops could increase yield and improve China's food security. This would put downward pressure on market prices for countries that have exported these crops to China.
China to adopt genetically modified maize and soy: why it matters for South Africa https://t.co/qE9h03swTc
— Wandile Sihlobo (@WandileSihlobo) October 3, 2022
NEW TRANSLATION: The July Politburo "study session" (集体学习) focused on the cultivation of high-quality talent within the PLA in order to build a “world-class military.”
— Interpret: China (@CSIS_Interpret) October 5, 2022
Today 推荐 - 中国军网/81cn opens with the announced creation of the First 🇨🇳PLAAF UAV Regiment unit.
— Jesus Roman (@jesusfroman) October 7, 2022
The unit will be based on Xibian, Eastern Theater Command (infront of Taiwan) and will operate Wing Loong I UAVs.
http://www.81 .cn/sydbt/2022-10/07/content_10189660.htm https://t.co/eu8xgnNr94 pic.twitter.com/Nlyx4Q8sJy
What form of diplomacy is this!?
This from the head of the information section of China’s main diplomatic agency, the MFA https://t.co/FNRjtrw0Cl
— Victor Shih (@vshih2) October 7, 2022
On the future of China-UK relations from a Chinese perspective:
Gao Jian (高健) on Liz Truss, British foreign policy and the future of 🇨🇳-🇬🇧 relations:
— Thomas des Garets Geddes (@thomasdggeddes) October 10, 2022
1/7 pic.twitter.com/jYw8aDJYiI
Economy
Growth appears to continue to slow as China's export boom stutters:
Q4 of 2022 will be extremely depressing for China macroeconomic watchers. Nowhere to see bright spots except endless PCR tests. A slowing global economy plus speeding manufacture capacity relocation to Vietnam and India. A self inflicted economic slowdown is stimulus-immune. https://t.co/C2OlFuFKBY
— 徐春 (@ChunXuCFA) October 3, 2022
The property slump in China is adding to local government revenue deficits:
1/9 📊🧵time!
— ChinaCharts (@RealChinaCharts) September 30, 2022
1. Local vs. Central Govt Finances
China’s local governments operate in a deficit while the central government enjoys a surplus. Local governments likely won’t be able to boost year-end revenues with land transfers because of the persistent property slump. https://t.co/5rrrbPpSea pic.twitter.com/EqAMuQGgIa
More on China's property slowdown:
As Xi Jinping secures a third term in power, his administration must orchestrate a soft landing from China's property meltdown. They also face a key question: without property as the key driver, how can China’s economy keep growing? via @FinancialTimes https://t.co/zJIl8cEPw2
— Edward White (@edwardwhitenz) October 5, 2022
On China's energy imports:
China's oil and natural gas imports have slumped along with its economy. The OPEC Plus production cut this week mainly just offsets lower demand from China. 1/x https://t.co/nMPAb8llKr
— Keith Bradsher (@KeithBradsher) October 7, 2022
China allows foreign direct investment of foreign tourism business in Shanghai and Chongqing. In Chongqing, Tianjin, Hainan, allowing foreign non-profits operating in retirement care.
— Liqian Ren (@liqian_ren) October 8, 2022
China will open, slower and more baby steps in shifting the public to mentally live w. it. /1 pic.twitter.com/2GV0zGt8xL
1/9
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) October 9, 2022
"If China is to put growth onto a more sustainable footing, it needs to empower its consumers. In particular, Beijing should allocate hefty fiscal transfers into state pension funds for both city and rural dwellers. This will cost a great deal."https://t.co/kbhKOgLpRK
Party Congress
The run-up to Party Congress is Beijing's silly season. But for all the talk of coups, Xi's not going anywhere.
— Ruby Osman (@rubyosman_) October 3, 2022
Ignore the rumour mill - here's what you should actually be looking out for as Beijing gears up for the political event of the decade. (1/7)https://t.co/Th6A2m1DO1
An interesting take that addresses peoples' "societal alienation from [Xi's] triumphant dominant faction".
My two cents on the upcoming CCP’s 20th party congress as a historical sociologist of Chinese Communism. To have a good sense of it, it’s essential to look from inside out, especially from inside of the party’s history. 1/11
— Xiaohong Xu (@Xiaohong__Xu) October 3, 2022