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Watching Australia #1: Guo Chunmei on AUKUS

Neican's new Watching Australia series presents translations of writings by Chinese thinkers on Australia-China relations.

This post is made possible by support from the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney.


Introduction and Translation by Adam Ni

I. Introduction

Guo Chunmei is an Associate Researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).

CICIR is a highly influential Chinese government think tank with close organisational ties to the Central Foreign Affairs Commission and the Ministry of State Security. Guo herself is one of the few analysts in China who have dedicated their careers to following Australian foreign policy.

Her article (translated) below is a blistering critique of the Morrison government's decision to enter into the AUKUS agreement. Guo argues that by "tying itself to the American chariot," the Australian government is "pushing Australia, step by step, towards isolation from Asia and Europe".

Guo argues that by pursuing AUKUS, "Australia’s actions add fuel to the fire" of regional tension, concluding:

The lessons of the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars are not distant, but they are incomparable to the current situation [facing Australia]: Australia is obstinately arming itself to the teeth. If history is a mirror, Australia is in peril.

For me, arming or tying oneself to the US are not problems in and of themselves. But AUKUS, as several Australian thinkers have already pointed out, is a failure of strategic imagination. Instead of seeking security in Asia through strengthening diplomacy and cooperation, the Australian government is pursuing a risky nuclear sub program.


II. Translation

Australia will burn itself by stirring up regional tensions

Guo Chunmei, Associate Researcher, Institute of Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations

Source: http://www.china.com.cn/opinion2020/2021-09/29/content_77781275.shtml

In September 2021, Australia’s Morrison government welcomed the season of harvest. After years of exertion, Australia finally fulfilled its wishes, gaining high recognition and rewards from the United States, the alliance leader.

Following the 70th anniversary of the United States-Australia alliance on September 1, the two countries took another historic step on September 16 by jointly announcing that they will enter into a new trilateral security alliance (AUKUS) with the United Kingdom. The aims [of the new AUKUS] are to advance security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and achieve a high degree of integration among the three countries in defence-related technology, industry, and supply chains. As a sign of sincerity, the United States will share highly sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Australia. The United States only shared this technology once in the past, in 1958, with its close partner, the United Kingdom. For Morrison, the United States’ decision was a great honour. He hailed AUKUS as the “single greatest initiative” “since the ANZUS alliance itself,” and a “forever partnership” established between “the oldest and most trusted of friends”.

Soon after [the AUKUS announcement], the United States and Australia held their first defence and foreign ministers 2+2 meeting. This meeting is the first of its kind between the two countries since Biden came to power [in January 2021]. Morrison himself made a high-profile visit to the United States and attended the first face-to-face summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). A series of heavyweight events and important statements declared to others that the alliance between the United States and Australia is unbreakable. Indeed, Australia became greatly satisfied with being among the most trusted and reliable countries in the Indo-Pacific region for the United States. Undoubtedly, the Morrison government considered this to be a moment of glory for Australia. For Morrison himself, it was even more so. Their calculus and agenda are as follows:

First, to neutralise sources of domestic Australian doubts about the United States-Australia alliance. In recent years, to help the United States maintain its hegemony, Australia has willingly taken the role of the anti-China vanguard. Australia’s actions have led to a sharp turn and deterioration in China-Australia relations, which has frustrated economic and trade cooperation. Although senior members of the Biden administration have verbally supported Australia [in the latter’s disagreements with China], they took no [real] action; American companies quickly filled Australia’s lost market share in China. As the pandemic spread, Australia begged the United States for soon-to-expire Pfizer vaccines to no avail. The United States withdrew its troops in Afghanistan but delayed communicating [its decision] with its most loyal ally, Australia. Domestic doubts about the reliability of the United States-Australia alliance emerged in response to these events; the Morrison government came under pressure as a result. The AUKUS agreement gave Morrison a total sense of purpose and self-importance. He boasted that it is “a very special arrangement and a very important one for Australia” and fully demonstrates the importance and trust the United States place on [his country].

Second, to enhance Australia's status and influence in the region. Although Australia is a regional middle power, it has had an identity crisis of being “neither east nor west” for a long time. Located in Asia, Australia’s heart is alas with the United Kingdom and the United States. The formation of a new security alliance by the three Anglo-Saxon countries — the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia — will, without doubt, substantially ease Australia’s identity anxiety. Indeed, the new arrangement will become a cooperative mechanism that gives Australia a total sense of security and belonging. The “generosity” of the United States and the United Kingdom may lead to Australia becoming the seventh country in the world to possess nuclear submarines. In Australia’s view, AUKUS, along with the Quad and the Five Eyes, will “bolster” its status. [Taken together, Australia’s involvement in] these mechanisms are clearly far beyond what [we should] expect of a middle power.

Third, to help Australia’s domestic economic transformation. In recent years, out of considerations for both economic development and national security, Australia has significantly increased its investment in high-end manufacturing industries, as represented by the defence industry. It wants to free itself from the dependence on resource exports to China. Based on the “high mutual trust” of the United States-Australia alliance, Australia can access American high-end military technology, such as supersonic missiles and military drones. The new AUKUS mechanism also further clears the way for Australia’s cooperation with the defence industries of the United States and the United Kingdom. For this reason, Australia did not hesitate to abandon the A$90 billion diesel-powered submarines contract with France in favour of embracing the nuclear submarines of the United States and the United Kingdom. Immediately after the announcement, Morrison revealed that South Australia, where the shipbuilding industry is well developed, will build future nuclear submarines. This project will create 8,000 local jobs.

However, the Morrison government’s seemingly clever strategic choice of tying itself to the American chariot is pushing Australia, step by step, towards isolation from Asia and Europe. Today, [many] people seem to have dissociated Australia from its role as a significant global supplier of resources and energy. Instead, they think of Australia as America’s suicide squad and vanguard in the Indo-Pacific. After the AUKUS announcement, countries including Malaysia and Indonesia immediately expressed their concerns, warning that Australia’s nuclear submarine programme might trigger a regional nuclear arms race and calling [Australia] to avoid provocative actions. Its neighbour New Zealand immediately reaffirmed its nuclear-free position to draw a clear distinction with Australia. France, the victim of the contract breach, denounced Australia for its betrayal, recalled its ambassador and is looking to settle scores. The European Union [now] regards Australia as unreliable and sceptical about their ongoing FTA negotiations.

While regional countries are mostly trying to uphold peace and stability, Australia is clinging to a Cold War mentality and trying its best to stir up tensions. It is reasonable that its [actions] are frowned upon and criticised. Instead of cooling down [tensions in] the region, Australia’s actions are adding fuel to the fire. In the end, Australia will burn itself. After all, Australia is a close neighbour of Asia, home to its major trading partners.

Former Australian prime minister [Paul] Keating hit the nail on the head. He pointed out that by tying Australia’s future to the United States, the [decision of the] Morrison government amounts to giving up Australian sovereignty. The policy [adopted by] Australian politicians – namely, the willingness to be American cannon fodder – is nothing more than an attempt at short-term political gains. Alas, the Australian nation and its people will bear the cost. The lessons of the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars are not distant, but they are incomparable to the current situation [facing Australia]: Australia is obstinately arming itself to the teeth. If history is a mirror, Australia is in peril.


Bilingual side-by-side:

澳大利亚挑动地区紧张局势恐将“引火烧身” Australia will burn itself by stirring up regional tensions
郭春梅 中国现代国际关系研究院东南亚和大洋洲研究所副研究员 Guo Chunmei, Associate Researcher, Institute of Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
2021年9月,澳大利亚莫里森政府迎来了收获的季节,经过近年卖力的表现,澳终于如愿以偿地获得了盟主美国的高度肯定与奖励。 In September 2021, Australia's Morrison government welcomed the season of harvest. After years of exertion, Australia finally fulfilled its wishes, gaining high recognition and rewards from the United States, the alliance leader.
在9月1日举行澳美结盟70周年纪念活动之后,美澳再次迈出历史性的一步,于9月16日联合宣布将与英国缔结新的三边安全联盟(AUKUS),以推进印太地区的安全与防务合作,实现三国在防务相关的科技、产业、供应链领域的高度一体化。为表诚意,美将向澳分享高度敏感的核潜艇技术,而上一次还是1958年美国向亲密伙伴英国分享了该技术。对此,莫里森视之为莫大的荣耀,盛赞这是澳“自《澳新美同盟条约》以来缔结的最伟大的倡议”,是“最悠久、最可信的朋友之间建立的永久的伙伴关系”。 Following the 70th anniversary of the United States-Australia alliance on September 1, the two countries took another historic step on September 16 by jointly announcing that they will enter into a new trilateral security alliance (AUKUS) with the United Kingdom. The aims [of the new AUKUS] are to advance security and defence cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region and achieve a high degree of integration among the three countries in defence-related technology, industry, and supply chains. As a sign of sincerity, the United States will share highly sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Australia. The United States only shared this technology once in the past, in 1958, with its close partner, the United Kingdom. For Morrison, the United States' decision was a great honour. He hailed AUKUS as the “single greatest initiative” “since the ANZUS alliance itself,” and a “forever partnership” established between “the oldest and most trusted of friends”.
紧随其后,美澳两国又举行了拜登政府上台以来的首次外长与防长之间的“2+2”会晤,莫里森本人则高调访美并出席了四边机制(Quad)的首次面对面峰会等。一系列重磅活动、重要声明对外宣示了美澳同盟的牢不可破,也令澳大利亚对跻身于美国在印太最为信任与倚重的国家之列沾沾自喜。 Soon after [the AUKUS announcement], the United States and Australia held their first defence and foreign ministers 2+2 meeting. This meeting is the first of its kind between the two countries since Biden came to power [in January 2021]. Morrison himself made a high-profile visit to the United States and attended the first face-to-face summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). A series of heavyweight events and important statements declared to others that the alliance between the United States and Australia is unbreakable. Indeed, Australia became greatly satisfied with being among the most trusted and reliable countries in the Indo-Pacific region for the United States.
于莫里森政府而言,这些无疑都是澳大利亚更是莫里森本人的高光时刻。其如意算盘莫过于: Undoubtedly, the Morrison government considered this a moment of glory for Australia. For Morrison himself, it was even more so. Their calculus and agenda are as follows:
其一,平复澳国内对美澳同盟的质疑。近年,澳为助美维霸,甘当反华急先锋,致中澳关系急转直下,经贸合作受挫。拜登政府要员虽喊话力挺澳大利亚,但口惠而实不至,美国企业更是迅速填补了澳大利亚在中国失去的市场。疫情蔓延之际,澳向美苦求马上过期的辉瑞疫苗而不得;美在阿富汗撤军,却迟迟不与最忠诚盟友澳大利亚沟通。凡此种种,引发澳国内对美澳同盟可靠性的质疑,莫里森政府因此承压。此次AUKUS协定,则令莫里森刷足了存在感,炫耀此为“美国对澳非常特殊且重要的安排”,充分彰显了美国对澳的重视与信任。 First, to neutralise sources of domestic Australian doubts about the United States-Australia alliance. In recent years, to help the United States maintain its hegemony, Australia has willingly taken the role of the anti-China vanguard. Australia’s actions have led to a sharp turn and deterioration in China-Australia relations, which has frustrated economic and trade cooperation. Although senior members of the Biden administration have verbally supported Australia [in the latter’s disagreements with China], they took no [real] action; American companies quickly filled Australia’s lost market share in China. As the pandemic spread, Australia begged the United States for soon-to-expire Pfizer vaccines to no avail. The United States withdrew its troops in Afghanistan but delayed communicating [its decision] with its most loyal ally, Australia. Domestic doubts about the reliability of the United States-Australia alliance emerged in response to these events; the Morrison government came under pressure as a result. The AUKUS agreement gave Morrison a total sense of purpose and self-importance. He boasted that it is “a very special arrangement and a very important one for Australia” and fully demonstrates the importance and trust the United States place on [his country].
其二,提升澳在地区的地位与影响力。澳大利亚虽为地区中等强国,但却长期存在“不东不西”的身份困境。其身在亚洲,心却向英美。美英澳三个盎格鲁-撒克逊国家抱团组建新的安全联盟,无疑将在很大程度上化解澳大利亚的身份焦虑,成为其最有安全感、归属感的合作机制;美英两国“慷慨解囊”,则有望令澳跃居全球第七个拥有核潜艇的国家。在澳看来,AUKUS势将与Quad、“五眼联盟”等一道“加持”澳的地位,这些机制显然远超一个中等强国应有的配置。 Second, to enhance Australia's status and influence in the region. Although Australia is a regional middle power, it has had an identity crisis of being “neither east nor west” for a long time. Located in Asia, Australia’s heart is alas with the United Kingdom and the United States. The formation of a new security alliance by the three Anglo-Saxon countries — the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia — will, without doubt, substantially ease Australia’s identity anxiety. Indeed, the new arrangement will become a cooperative mechanism that gives Australia a total sense of security and belonging. The “generosity” of the United States and the United Kingdom may lead to Australia becoming the seventh country in the world to possess nuclear submarines. In Australia’s view, AUKUS, along with the Quad and the Five Eyes, will “bolster” its status. [Taken together, Australia’s involvement in] these mechanisms are clearly far beyond what [we should] expect of a middle power.
其三,助力澳国内经济转型。近年出于经济发展与国家安全的双重考虑,澳显著加大了以国防工业为代表的高端制造业的投入,以摆脱对华资源出口的依赖。基于美澳同盟的“高度互信”,澳得以共享美国在高超声速导弹、军用无人机等领域的高端军事技术。新的AUKUS机制则进一步为澳与美、英国防工业合作扫清障碍。为此澳不惜背弃与法国高达900亿澳元的柴电潜艇合同,转投美英核潜艇的怀抱。莫里森已在第一时间宣布将在造船业发达的南澳建设未来核潜艇项目,届时将为当地解决8000多个就业岗位。 Third, to help Australia’s domestic economic transformation. In recent years, out of considerations for both economic development and national security, Australia has significantly increased its investment in high-end manufacturing industries, as represented by the defence industry. It wants to free itself from the dependence on resource exports to China. Based on the “high mutual trust” of the United States-Australia alliance, Australia can access American high-end military technology, such as supersonic missiles and military drones. The new AUKUS mechanism also further clears the way for Australia’s cooperation with the defence industries of the United States and the United Kingdom. For this reason, Australia did not hesitate to abandon the A$90 billion diesel-powered submarines contract with France in favour of embracing the nuclear submarines of the United States and the United Kingdom. Immediately after the announcement, Morrison revealed that South Australia, where the shipbuilding industry is well developed, will build future nuclear submarines. This project will create 8,000 local jobs.
然而,莫里森政府这种看似聪明的、绑定美国战车的战略抉择却在一步步将澳推向自决于亚洲与欧洲的境地。如今人们似乎已经遗忘了那个作为全球主要资源、能源供应国的澳大利亚,取而代之的是作为美国在印太的敢死队、急先锋的澳大利亚。在AUKUS机制宣布之后,马来西亚、印尼等国第一时间表达担忧,警告澳大利亚建设核潜艇的行为可能引发地区核军备竞赛,呼吁其避免挑衅性行为;邻国新西兰亦在第一时间重申无核化立场,以与澳划清界限;惨遭毁约的法国则痛斥澳背信弃义,召回法国驻澳大使,并要与澳好好算账;欧盟亦视澳为不可靠国家,对与澳正在进行的自贸谈判心存疑虑。 However, the Morrison government’s seemingly clever strategic choice of tying itself to the American chariot is pushing Australia, step by step, towards isolation from Asia and Europe. Today, [many] people seem to have dissociated Australia from its role as a significant global supplier of resources and energy. Instead, they think of Australia as America’s suicide squad and vanguard in the Indo-Pacific. After the AUKUS announcement, countries including Malaysia and Indonesia immediately expressed their concerns, warning that Australia’s nuclear submarine programme might trigger a regional nuclear arms race and calling [Australia] to avoid provocative actions. Its neighbour New Zealand immediately reaffirmed its nuclear-free position to draw a clear distinction with Australia. France, the victim of the contract breach, denounced Australia for its betrayal, recalled its ambassador and is looking to settle scores. The European Union [now] regards Australia as unreliable and sceptical about their ongoing FTA negotiations.
当地区国家多在努力维持和平与稳定之际,澳大利亚却抱持冷战思维不放,竭力挑动紧张局势,遭地区国家不齿与嫌弃自在情理之中。澳大利亚种种玩火举动不仅不会为地区降温,反而是火上浇油,也终将引火烧身,毕竟澳是亚洲近邻,主要贸易伙伴亦在于此。 While regional countries are mostly trying to uphold peace and stability, Australia is clinging to a Cold War mentality and trying its best to stir up tensions. It is reasonable that its [actions] are frowned upon and criticised. Instead of cooling down [tensions in] the region, Australia's actions are adding fuel to the fire. In the end, Australia will burn itself. After all, Australia is a close neighbour of Asia, home to its major trading partners.
澳前总理基廷更是一阵见血地指出,莫里森政府将澳的未来系于美国是丧权辱国。事实上,澳政客甘当美国炮灰的政策无非是想要捞取短期的政治资本,其代价却要由澳大利亚国家和人民来承担。越南战争、阿富汗战争的教训并不遥远,但都无法与澳当前如此一意孤行地将自己武装成战场相提并论。若历史是一面镜子,澳大利亚危矣! Former Australian prime minister [Paul] Keating hit the nail on the head. He pointed out that by tying Australia's future to the United States, the [decision of the] Morrison government amounts to giving up Australian sovereignty. The policy [adopted by] Australian politicians – namely, the willingness to be American cannon fodder – is nothing more than an attempt at short-term political gains. Alas, the Australian nation and its people will bear the cost. The lessons of the Vietnam and Afghanistan wars are not distant, but they are incomparable to the current situation [facing Australia]: Australia is obstinately arming itself to the teeth. If history is a mirror, Australia is in peril.